Intranational synergies and trade-offs reveal common and differentiated priorities of sustainable development goals in China.

Accelerating efforts for the Sustainable Development Goals requires understanding their synergies and trade-offs at the national and sub-national levels, which will help identify the key hurdles and opportunities to prioritize them in an indivisible manner for a country. Here, we present the importance of the 17 goals through synergy and trade-off networks. Our results reveal that 19 provinces show the highest trade-offs in SDG13 (Combating Climate Change) or SDG5 (Gender Equality) consistent with the national level, with other 12 provinces varying. 24 provinces show the highest synergies in SDG1 (No Poverty) or SDG6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) consistent with the national level, with the remaining 7 provinces varying. These common but differentiated SDG priorities reflect that to ensure a coordinated national response, China should pay more attention to the provincial situation, so that provincial governments can formulate more targeted policies in line with their own priorities towards accelerating sustainable development.

Four governance reforms to strengthen the SDGs.

A demanding policy vision can accelerate global sustainable development efforts.

A threefold approach to rescue the 2030 Agenda from failing.

Rescuing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development from failing requires prioritizing Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), understanding the impacts of underachieving SDGs, and building a post-2030 Agenda based on scientific evidence.

Untangling the interactions among the Sustainable Development Goals in China.

Understanding the interactions (synergies and trade-offs) among the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is crucial for enhancing policy coherence between different sectors. However, spatial differences in the SDG interactions and their temporal variations at the sub-national scale are still critical gaps that need to be urgently filled. Here, we assess the spatial and temporal variation of the SDG interactions in China based on the systematic classification framework of SDGs. The framework groups the seventeen SDGs into three categories, namely "Essential Needs", "Objectives", and "Governance". Spatially, we found that the SDGs in "Essential Needs" & "Objectives" and "Essential Needs" & "Governance" generally show trade-offs in the eastern provinces of China. Synergies among all three SDG categories are observed in some central and western China provinces, which implies that these regions conform to sustainable development patterns. In addition, temporally, the synergies of the three SDG categories have shown a weakening trend in the last decade, mainly due to the regional differences in the progress of SDG7 (Affordable and Clean Energy). Overall, our results identify the necessity for provinces to enhance the synergies between SDG12 (Responsible Production and Consumption) and other SDGs to tackle the trade-offs between the "Essential Needs" and "Objectives". Meanwhile, promoting the progress of SDG7 will also contribute to balanced development across provinces.

India consists of multiple food systems with scoioeconomic and environmental variations.

Agriculture in India accounts for 18% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and uses significant land and water. Various socioeconomic factors and food subsidies influence diets in India. Indian food systems face the challenge of sustainably nourishing the 1.3 billion population. However, existing studies focus on a few food system components, and holistic analysis is still missing. We identify Indian food systems covering six food system components: food consumption, production, processing, policy, environmental footprints, and socioeconomic factors from the latest Indian household consumer expenditure survey. We identify 10 Indian food systems using k-means cluster analysis on 15 food system indicators belonging to the six components. Based on the major source of calorie intake, we classify the ten food systems into production-based (3), subsidy-based (3), and market-based (4) food systems. Home-produced and subsidized food contribute up to 2000 kcal/consumer unit (CU)/day and 1651 kcal/CU/day, respectively, in these food systems. The calorie intake of 2158 to 3530 kcal/CU/day in the food systems reveals issues of malnutrition in India. Environmental footprints are commensurate with calorie intake in the food systems. Embodied GHG, land footprint, and water footprint estimates range from 1.30 to 2.19 kg CO2eq/CU/day, 3.89 to 6.04 m2/CU/day, and 2.02 to 3.16 m3/CU/day, respectively. Our study provides a holistic understanding of Indian food systems for targeted nutritional interventions on household malnutrition in India while also protecting planetary health.

Adjusting agricultural emissions for trade matters for climate change mitigation.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in food systems is becoming more challenging as food is increasingly consumed away from producer regions, highlighting the need to consider emissions embodied in trade in agricultural emissions accounting. To address this, our study explores recent trends in trade-adjusted agricultural emissions of food items at the global, regional, and national levels. We find that emissions are largely dependent on a country's consumption patterns and their agricultural emission intensities relative to their trading partners'. The absolute differences between the production-based and trade-adjusted emissions accounting approaches are especially apparent for major agricultural exporters and importers and where large shares of emission-intensive items such as ruminant meat, milk products and rice are involved. In relative terms, some low-income and emerging and developing economies with consumption of high emission intensity food products show large differences between approaches. Similar trends are also found under various specifications that account for trade and re-exports differently. These findings could serve as an important element towards constructing national emissions reduction targets that consider trading partners, leading to more effective emissions reductions overall.

A systems model of SDG target influence on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted by the United Nations in 2015 as part of the "2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development" and aim to address issues ranging from poverty and economic growth to climate change. Efforts to tackle one issue can support or hinder progress towards others, often with complex systemic interactions. Thus, each of the SDGs and their corresponding targets may contribute as levers or hurdles towards achieving other SDGs and targets. Based on SDG indicator data, we create a systems model considering influence among the SDGs and their targets. Once assessed within a system, we find that more SDGs and their corresponding targets act as levers towards achieving other goals and targets rather than as hurdles. In particular, efforts towards SDGs 5 (Gender Equality) and 17 (Partnerships for the Goals) may accelerate progress, while SDGs 10 (Reduced Inequalities) and 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions) are shown to create potential hurdles. The model results can be used to help promote supportive interactions and overcome hindering ones in the long term. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-021-01040-8.

Characterizing the sectoral development of cities.

Previous research has identified a predictive model of how a nation's distribution of gross domestic product (GDP) among agriculture (a), industry (i), and services (s) changes as a country develops. Here we use this national model to analyze the composition of GDP for US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) over time. To characterize the transfer of GDP shares between the sectors in the course of economic development we explore a simple system of differential equations proposed in the country-level model. Fitting the model to more than 120 MSAs we find that according to the obtained parameters MSAs can be classified into 6 groups (consecutive, high industry, re-industrializing; each of them also with reversed development direction). The consecutive transfer (a → i → s) is common but does not represent all MSAs examined. At the 95% confidence level, 40% of MSAs belong to types exhibiting an increasing share of GDP from agriculture. In California, such MSAs, which we classify as part of an agriculture renaissance, are found in the Central Valley.

Identifying climatic and non-climatic determinants of malnutrition prevalence in Bangladesh: A country-wide cross-sectional spatial analysis.

Child malnutrition is indisputably a multi-faceted phenomenon. Comprehending the aforesaid crucial issue this paper intended to identify climatic and non-climatic factors for the spatial variation of malnutrition prevalence in Bangladesh. The climatic data on temperature and rainfall are obtained from the WorldClim dataset. We obtained a set of global climate layers that included monthly data on minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, and rainfall for the period 1960-1990, at a spatial resolution up to 30 'onds (~ 1 × 1 km at the equator). The data are extracted at the district level using the zonal-statistics in QGIS. This study performed a spatial lag regression to evaluate association of malnutrition with climate characteristics and other factors. The prevalence of malnutrition exhibited substantial association with temperature and precipitation. Food production, water access, improved sanitation, literacy, road density, solvency ratio and GDP had a significant association with the spatial variation of malnutrition in Bangladesh.

Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals.

Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level.

The ongoing nutrition transition thwarts long-term targets for food security, public health and environmental protection.

The nutrition transition transforms food systems globally and shapes public health and environmental change. Here we provide a global forward-looking assessment of a continued nutrition transition and its interlinked symptoms in respect to food consumption. These symptoms range from underweight and unbalanced diets to obesity, food waste and environmental pressure. We find that by 2050, 45% (39-52%) of the world population will be overweight and 16% (13-20%) obese, compared to 29% and 9% in 2010 respectively. The prevalence of underweight approximately halves but absolute numbers stagnate at 0.4-0.7 billion. Aligned, dietary composition shifts towards animal-source foods and empty calories, while the consumption of vegetables, fruits and nuts increases insufficiently. Population growth, ageing, increasing body mass and more wasteful consumption patterns are jointly pushing global food demand from 30 to 45 (43-47) Exajoules. Our comprehensive open dataset and model provides the interfaces necessary for integrated studies of global health, food systems, and environmental change. Achieving zero hunger, healthy diets, and a food demand compatible with environmental boundaries necessitates a coordinated redirection of the nutrition transition. Reducing household waste, animal-source foods, and overweight could synergistically address multiple symptoms at once, while eliminating underweight would not substantially increase food demand.

Environmental implications and socioeconomic characterisation of Indian diets.

India is facing a double burden of malnourishment with co-existences of under- and over-nourishment. Various socioeconomic factors play an essential role in determining dietary choices. Agriculture is one of the major emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in India, contributing 18% of total emissions. It also consumes freshwater and uses land significantly. We identify eleven Indian diets by applying k-means cluster analysis on latest data from the Indian household consumer expenditure survey. The diets vary in calorie intake [2289-3218 kcal/Consumer Unit (CU)/day] and dietary composition. Estimated embodied GHG emissions in the diets range from 1.36 to 3.62 kg CO2eq./CU/day, land footprint from 4 to 5.45 m2/CU/day, whereas water footprint varies from 2.13 to 2.97 m3/CU/day. Indian diets deviate from a healthy reference diet either with too much or too little consumption of certain food groups. Overall, cereals, sugar, and dairy products intake are higher. In contrast, the consumption of fruits and vegetables, pulses, and nuts is lower than recommended. Our study contributes to deriving required polices for the sustainable transformation of food systems in India to eliminate malnourishment and to reduce the environmental implications of the food systems.

Urban Food Systems: How Regionalization Can Contribute to Climate Change Mitigation.

Cities will play a key role in the grand challenge of nourishing a growing global population, because, due to their population density, they set the demand. To ensure that food systems are sustainable, as well as nourishing, one solution often suggested is to shorten their supply chains toward a regional rather than a global basis. While such regional systems may have a range of costs and benefits, we investigate the mitigation potential of regionalized urban food systems by examining the greenhouse gas emissions associated with food transport. Using data on food consumption for 7108 urban administrative units (UAUs), we simulate total transport emissions for both regionalized and globalized supply chains. In regionalized systems, the UAUs' demands are fulfilled by peripheral food production, whereas to simulate global supply chains, food demand is met from an international pool (where the origin can be any location globally). We estimate that regionalized systems could reduce current emissions from food transport. However, because longer supply chains benefit from maximizing comparative advantage, this emission reduction would require closing yield gaps, reducing food waste, shifting toward diversified farming, and consuming seasonal produce. Regionalization of food systems will be an essential component to limit global warming to well below 2 °C in the future.

A systematic analysis of Water-Energy-Food security nexus: A South Asian case study.

Most South Asian countries have challenges in ensuring water, energy, and food (WEF) security, which are often interacting positively or negatively. To address these challenges, the nexus approach provides a framework to identify the interactions of the WEF sectors as an integrated system. However, most nexus studies only qualitatively discuss the interactions between these sectors. This study conducts a systematic analysis of the WEF security nexus in South Asia by using open data sources at the country scale. We analyze interactions between the WEF sectors statistically, defining positive and negative correlations between the WEF security indicators as synergies and trade-offs, respectively. By creating networks of the synergies and trade-offs, we further identify most positively and negatively influencing indicators in the WEF security nexus. We observe a larger share of trade-offs than synergies within the water and energy sectors and a larger share of synergies than trade-offs among the WEF sectors for South Asia. However, these observations vary across the South Asian countries. Our analysis highlights that strategies on promoting sustainable energy and discouraging fossil fuel use could have overall positive effects on the WEF security nexus in the countries. This study provides evidence for considering the WEF security nexus as an integrated system rather than just a combination of three different sectors or securities.

Sectoral performance analysis of national greenhouse gas emission inventories by means of neural networks.

Annual greenhouse gas emissions have increased more than threefold between 1950 and 2014, posing a major threat to the integrity of the entire earth system and subsequently to humankind. Consequently, roadmaps towards low-carbon pathways are urgently needed. Our study contributes to a more detailed understanding of the dynamics of country based emission patterns and uses them to discuss prospective low-carbon pathways for countries. As availability of databases on sectoral emissions substantially increased, we employ machine learning techniques to classify emission features and pathways. By doing so, 18 representative emission patterns are derived. Overall emissions from seven sectors and for 167 countries covering the time span from 1950 to 2014 have been used in the analyses. The following significant trends can be observed: a) increasing per capita emissions due to growing fossil fuel use in many parts of the world, b) a decline in per capita emissions in some countries, and c) a shift in the emission shares, i.e., a reduction of agricultural and land use contributions in certain regions. Using the emission patterns, their dynamics, and best performing countries as role models, we show the possibility for gaining a decent human development without significantly increasing per capita emissions.

Correction: Embodied Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Diets.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0062228.].

Food Surplus and Its Climate Burdens.

Avoiding food loss and waste may counteract the increasing food demand and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the agricultural sector. This is crucial because of limited options available to increase food production. In the year 2010, food availability was 20% higher than was required on a global scale. Thus, a more sustainable food production and adjusted consumption would have positive environmental effects. This study provides a systematic approach to estimate consumer level food waste on a country scale and globally, based on food availability and requirements. The food requirement estimation considers demographic development, body weights, and physical activity levels. Surplus between food availability and requirements of a given country is considered as food waste. The global food requirement changed from 2,300 kcal/cap/day to 2,400 kcal/cap/day during the last 50 years, while food surplus grew from 310 kcal/cap/day to 510 kcal/cap/day. Similarly, GHG emissions related to the food surplus increased from 130 Mt CO2eq/yr to 530 Mt CO2eq/yr, an increase of more than 300%. Moreover, the global food surplus may increase up to 850 kcal/cap/day, while the total food requirement will increase only by 2%-20% by 2050. Consequently, GHG emissions associated with the food waste may also increase tremendously to 1.9-2.5 Gt CO2eq/yr.